Bitcoinas atsiduria nuosmukio tendencijoje, nes taikos susitarimo sukeltas optimizmas silpnėja dėl naujų įtampų Hormuzų sąsiauryje: analitikų nuomonė

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Bitcoin pulled back from nearly $74,000 over the weekend as the Middle East ceasefire bounce began to fade.

Analysts opined that traders were again forced back into the same macro script that has dominated crypto for weeks: oil up, inflation risk up, conviction down.

On April 12, bitcoin (BTC) last changed hands around $71,000, The Block’s price page shows. Ether (ETH) hovered around $2,190, with the broader crypto market retreating as well.

The pullback came after U.S.-Iran talks broke down and the White House escalated rhetoric around a naval blockade tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

In a Monday note, QCP Capital said markets had hoped for a deal but were positioned for disappointment, noting that BTC hit resistance at $74,000 as crude moved back above $100 and risk appetite weakened.

The firm added that the market is now trading "execution, not headlines," with credibility around any blockade enforcement becoming part of the trade itself.

Notably, some analysts said the latest pullback has not yet turned into panic.

Nexo analysts argued that the "ceasefire-driven relief trade" is unwinding, but added that forced selling has stayed relatively contained. They pointed to nearly $1 billion in spot bitcoin ETF inflows last week and said liquidation activity remains well below first-quarter norms, suggesting the market has absorbed the weekend shock better than it would have earlier in the year.

Overhead resistance

Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said bitcoin’s move back above $70,000 is meaningful, but every push into the $70,000-$80,000 band is still meeting profit-taking. He said roughly 13.5 million addresses remain underwater, keeping overhead supply alive even as institutional flows improve.

Glassnode data tells a similar story. The count of addresses in loss is still elevated, while bitcoin trades below key short-term cost-basis levels that cluster above spot prices.

Several analysts converged on the same broader point: bitcoin is holding up, but it is doing so as a macro asset, not as a detached crypto trade. Simon Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said the rally from softer inflation data lacked a strong enough foundation to sustain itself.

Meanwhile, Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com put it more bluntly, saying the playbook is back to "oil up" and risk assets under pressure.

Cleaner leverage

Under the surface, though, crypto looks cleaner than it did in the first quarter.

FalconX’s Senior Crypto Market Strategist, Martin Gaspar, said aggregate futures open interest ended March at $56.5 billion, down 54% from the October 2025 peak and back near mid-2024 levels, evidence that much of the excess leverage has already been flushed out.

Gaspar added that bitcoin’s resilience through early April suggests the deleveraging cycle may be nearing completion, even if macro shocks can still interrupt recovery.

That is showing up in options, too. Laser Digital noted that volatility briefly repriced higher on the run to $74,000 and the subsequent selloff, but the move did not stick. BTC implied vol is back around 45, a sign that traders still expect choppy range trading rather than a clean breakout.

QCP made a similar point, saying implied vols and risk reversals have drifted back toward pre-conflict levels, suggesting uncertainty remains, but panic has faded.

For many experts, the macro backdrop remains the swing factor. U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year over year, up sharply from 2.4% in February, as the Iran-related energy shock fed through to prices.

In other words, the analysts said that inflation has reaccelerated enough to keep the Fed cautious. Yet growth is not strong enough to justify a fresh hawkish repricing. This leaves bitcoin in an awkward but familiar place: weaker than it looked at $74,000, but firmer than a full macro unwind would normally imply.

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source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/the_block:60ce21616094b:0-bitcoin-pulls-back-as-ceasefire-rally-fades-amid-renewed-hormuz-tensions-analysts/