Dešimtinės finansų ekosistemos padariniai dėl įsilaužimo vis dar jaučiami – rinkos diskusijos

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1127 ET - Last weekend's exploit of KelpDAO to drain the DeFi platform out of roughly $290 million-worth of rsETH is still being felt within the entire decentralized finance ecosystem, says Galaxy Research in a note. "Five days after the event, the fallout is still playing out," the firm says. Aggressive leverage on the loans collateralized with rsETH means that the shock, once fully felt, may cause billions in liquidations, Galaxy says. But the market remains unsure of how severe the longer-term complications are for DeFi and where the shockwave ends. "The complexity of fully resolving the ongoing situation should not be underestimated," the firm says. "A comprehensive solution has yet to materialize, in part because it requires coordination across multiple actors with conflicting interests." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1118 ET - Brazil's central bank is likely to cut its interest rates next week by a quarter point for a second consecutive time, to 14.5%, Suno Research's economist Gustavo Sung says. Inflation expectations are rising as fuel prices spike due to the Middle East conflict, reducing the central bank's margin to cut. Rising crude prices "are already affecting supply chains," he says. Sung now expects the Selic policy rate to end the year at 13%, up from his previous forecast of 12.5%, while cuts will be followed by hawkish statements. "The central bank needs to sound hard and committed" to drive down inflation expectations, Sung says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1114 ET - The Bank of England could cut interest rates at the end of 2026 due to the deteriorating U.K. jobs market, analysts at the Investment Institute by UniCredit say in a note. The latest labor market data show the U.K. unemployment rate fell but average wage growth also slowed. The weak labor market is expected to mitigate against rising inflation, enabling the BOE to cut interest rates, the analysts say. Investors price in two BOE rate rises in 2026, and a 16% chance of a third rate hike, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1104 ET - The timing of Jerome Powell's departure from his eight-year leadership tenure at the Fed was uncertain, because the investigation into the Fed's headquarters renovation had delayed the confirmation of his successor. Now, Warsh will likely be confirmed in time to take on the role of Fed chair when Powell's term officially ends May 15. That means next week's Fed meeting is almost certain to be Powell's last as chair. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1051 ET - The fact that bitcoin has traded on the higher side of $75,000 for the majority of the week is seen as a sign of better things to come, says David Duong of Coinbase Institutional in a note. "We saw a notable spike in short liquidations alongside the rally," Duong says. "While that may sound bearish at first glance… many important trend reversals and market structure breaks have started with liquidation-driven moves." Duong adds that if BTC prices stay put between $75,000 to $80,000 now, then higher spot demand can eventually lead to a push as high as $84,000. Bitcoin is down 0.1% to $77,818, according to data from LSEG. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1043 ET - Retail demand is likely to keep municipal-bond markets on good footing despite an expected strong issuance, Alvarez & Marsal Private Wealth's Taki Kisaka says. "This year we've actually already seen about $20 billion in inflows into the municipal bond space, which has easily been able to digest the approximately $17 billion in net new issuance this year." He says high taxpayers will likely remain interested in munis' exemptions, as more localities consider extra taxation on the wealthy. The firm expects higher education and healthcare sectors to stand out as more negative. Kisaka said geopolitical tensions could help beef up demand for munis as a safe-haven asset. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1038 ET - Canadian retail sales appear to have posted the best quarter for growth since before U.S. trade tensions began to weigh on consumer sentiment, th9ough tougher tests are still to come, says CIBC Capital Markets' Andrew Grantham. Building on January's increase, sales in February rose 0.7% on-month and a flash estimate indicates sales in March increased 0.6%. Grantham says that with higher pump prices limiting the ability of some households to make discretionary purchases, consumer spending is likely to slow again in volume terms during 2Q. That slowdown should limit the spread of inflationary pressures to other areas of the economy, and enable the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates on hold through 2026, the economist says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1035 ET - The Bank of England's meeting next week will be watched for policymakers' views on inflation and growth amid the Middle East war, Nomura research analysts say in a note. The monetary policy committee is expected to "update markets on its reaction function to the U.S.-Iran war," the analysts say. MPC members should outline their views on risks to the economy and inflation from high energy prices, they say. Investors price in an 85% chance of the BOE keeping interest rates on hold at 3.75% during the meeting and a small 15% chance of a 25 basis-point increase to 4.0%, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1033 ET - A 0.3% month-on-month rise in Canadian retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than anticipated, but the bigger news is the flash estimate for March points to an only 0.6% increase despite the surge in gasoline prices, Capital Economics says. The research firm estimates that means sales volumes fell about 1% last month, which would be the weakest for at least six months. That wouldn't be enough to seriously dent an otherwise positive first quarter, with sales volumes still on track to have risen by about 4% annualized, but it suggests a weak handover to the second quarter and hints at a slowdown in consumption, Capital Economics says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1027 ET - With the Justice Department's probe of Jerome Powell winding down, Kevin Warsh likely has a clear path to succeed Powell as Fed chair. His nomination had been held up in the Senate over Republican Thom Tillis's opposition to the Powell investigation. When confirmed, Warsh would take over the board seat now occupied by Stephen Miran, winding down Miran's short seven-month stint at the central bank. Powell can elect to stay on the Fed's board as a governor, although most past Fed chairs have left the institution when their leadership terms end. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1011 ET - The dollar could show little reaction if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady Wednesday and reiterates a message of patience regarding future moves, TD Securities strategists say in a note. "With geopolitical uncertainty remaining high and data not justifying a need for the Fed to act imminently, market reaction to the Fed meeting and statement should be muted," they say. The focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and how he addresses any questions about his tenure and possibility of staying on in the interim. Most scenarios under a transition led by Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh skew moderately dollar negative due to lingering questions over his independence compared to Powell, they say. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1009 ET - Many economists and investors will watch whether Fed Chair Powell leans into language that reflects two-sided risks to policy next week. "We think it won't, but it's a close call," BofA says in a note. The bank adds that Powell is likely to reinforce a higher-for-longer stance in the news conference, and upside risks to inflation from the Iran war haven't dissipated. Markets are pricing in a 99.5% chance of the Fed staying on hold at April's meeting. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/DJN_DN20260424006530:0/